O CÓDIGO FLORESTAL SOB A ÓTICA DA TEORIA DO EQUILÍBRIO PONTUADO
Abstract
The public policies that have permeated the entire history of the Brazilian Forest Code can be understood through the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory developed by True, Jones, and Baumgartner. From 1934 to 2012, this legal framework experienced a long period of stability with incremental advances, driven by a policy image focused on conservation. This legal profile made the Brazilian Forest Code one of the most advanced in the world in terms of environmental protection. However, starting in the late 2000s, a new policy image gained strength, focusing on the economic use of natural resources, with a narrative dominated by agribusiness groups. This tension, which began at the subsystemic level, rose to the macropolitical level in a marked inflection that gave rise to the New Forest Code in 2012. This punctuation resulted from an attempt to reconcile conservationist and agribusiness narratives and led to legal provisions with undeniable environmental flexibilization while also reinforcing certain control mechanisms and incentives. Nevertheless, the impact of this new punctuation remains unclear, indicating that its implementation is still incipient. Looking ahead, new environmental and economic challenges may put pressure on political subsystems, leading to a future new punctuation. It is essential to overcome the false dichotomy between conservation and food production, understanding that it is both possible and necessary to combine productivity and competitiveness with environmental preservation.
